Qin Bo, Chen Xiaoxuan, Qu Shen

Keywords： Autonomous Vehicle; Ripple Effect Model; Urban System; Transport Planning; Spatial Form; Social Equity; Planning Response; Literature Review

Abstract：

Recently the autonomous driving technology has achieved breakthrough, which will affect our travel behaviors, and thus bring changes to socio-economic systems. By using Ripple Effect Model, this paper conducts a systematic literature review on the impacts of autonomous vehicle on the cities and planning responses. After introducing the development of autonomous driving technology, the paper summarizes the impacts of autonomous vehicle on urban transportation, land use, and socio-economic system, and proposes potential responses for planners. By the literature review, it is suggested that the impacts of autonomous driving technology to the cities contain both positive and negative sides. For urban planners it is necessary to keep update with and even participate in the technical advancement, and to adjust the existing planning principles and techniques accordingly.

Funds：

• [1] SAE International[EB/OL]. (2018) [2018-08-30]. https://www.sae.org/automated-unmanned-vehicles/.
  [2] Mckinsey Company. Self-driving car technology: when will the robots hit the road? [R/OL]. (2017) [2018-08-30]. https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly.
  [3] 沈旺荣. 浅谈自动驾驶对城市规划的影响[J]. 建材与装饰, 2017(3): 112-113.
  [4] 张凤霖. 基于自动驾驶汽车的城市交通变革与展望[C]. 中国城市规划学会, 2015.
  [5] MILAKIS D, AREM B V, WEE B V. Policy and society related implications of automated driving: a review of literature and directions for future research[J]. Journal of intelligent transportation systems, 2017, 21(4): 324-348.
  [6] 乔维高, 徐学进. 无人驾驶汽车的发展现状及方向[J]. 上海汽车, 2006(7): 40-43.
  [7] GEHRIG S K, STEIN F J. Dead reckoning and cartography using stereo vision for an autonomous car[C]. IEEE/RSJ International Conference on Intelligent Robots and Systems, 1999. DOI:10.1109/IROS.1999.811692.
  [8] WAYMO[EB/OL]. (2018) [2018-08-31]. https://waymo.com.
  [9] 端木庆玲, 阮界望, 马骏. 无人驾驶汽车的先进技术与发展[J]. 农业装备与车辆工程, 2014, 52(3): 30-33.
  [10] APOLLO[EB/OL]. (2018) [2018-08-31]. https://apollo.auto.
  [11] 中华人民共和国工业和信息化部. 中国制造2025[EB/OL]. (2018) [2018-08-30]. http://www.miit.gov.cn.
  [12] BARSADE S. The ripple effect: emotional contagion and its influence on group behavior[J]. Administrative science quarterly, 2002, 47: 644-675.
  [13] COOPER C, ORFORD S, WEBSTER C, et al. Exploring the ripple effect and spatial volatility in house prices in England and Wales:
  regressing interaction domain cross-correlations against reactive statistics[J]. Environment and planning b, 2013, 40(5): 763-782.
  [14] IVANOV D, SOKOLOV B, DOLGUI A. The ripple effect in supply chains: trade-off efficiency-flexibility-resilience in disruption management[J]. International journal of production research, 2014, 52(7): 2154-2172.
  [15] LITMAN T. Autonomous vehicle implementation predictions implications for transport planning [R/OL]. (2018) [2018-08-30]. http://www.vtpi.org.
  [16] WADUD Z D, MACKENZIE, LEIBY P. Help or hindrance? the travel, energy and carbon impacts of highly automated vehicles[J]. Transportation research part a, 2016, 86: 1-18.
  [17] CHILDRESS S, NICHOLS B, CHARLTON B, et al. Using an activity-based model to explore potential impacts of automated vehicles[J]. Journal of the transportation research board, 2015, 2493: 99-106.
  [18] GUERRA E. Planning for cars that drive themselves: metropolitan planning organizations, regional transportation plans, and autonomous vehicles[J]. Journal of planning education and research, 2016, 36(2): 210-224.
  [19] HARPER C D, HENDRICKSON C T, MANGONES S, et al. Estimating potential increases in travel with autonomous vehicles for the nondriving, elderly and people with travel-restrictive medical conditions[J]. Transportation research part c, 2016, 72: 1-9.
  [20] WOYKE E. The blind community has high hopes for self-driving cars[R/OL] (2016) [2018-08-30]. https://www.technologyreview.com/s/602555/theblind-community-has-high-hopes-for-self-driving-cars.
  [21] LEVIN M W, BOYLES S D. Effects of autonomous vehicle ownership on trip, mode and route choice[J]. Journal of the transportation research board,2015, 2493: 29-38.
  [22] FAGNANT D J, KOCKELMAN K. Preparing a nation for autonomous vehicles: opportunities, barriers and policy recommendations[J]. Transportation research part a, 2015, 77: 167-181.
  [23] MARCZUK K A, HONG H S S, AZEVEDO C M L, et al. Autonomous mobility on demand in sim-mobility: case study of the central business district in Singapore[C]. Cybernetics and Intelligent Systems (CIS) and IEEE Conference on Robotics, Automation and Mechatronics (RAM), 2015: 167-172.
  [24] AZEVEDO L, MARCZUK K, RAVEAU S, et al. Microsimulation of demand and supply of autonomous mobility on demand[J]. Journal of the transportation research board, 2016, 2564: 21-30.
  [25] SHLADOVER S, SU D, LU X. Impacts of cooperative adaptive cruise control on freeway traffic flow[J]. Journal of the transportation research board, 2012, 2324: 63-70.
  [26] FRAEDRICH, HEINRICHS, BAHAMONDE-BIRKE, et al. Autonomous driving, the built environment and policy implications[J/OL]. Transportation research par t a , 2018. [2019-01-02] . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2018.02.018.
  [27] COHEN T, CAVOLI C. Automated vehicles: exploring possible consequences of government (non) intervention for congestion and accessibility[J]. Transport reviews, 2018, 29: 129-151.
  [28] CHAPIN T, STEVENS L, CRUTE J, et al. Envisioning Florida’s future: transportation and land use in an automated vehicle world[R]. Florida Department of Transportation, 2016, Tallahassee.
  [29] ZHANG W, GUHATHAKURTA S, FANG J, et al. Exploring the impact of shared autonomous vehicles on urban parking demand: an agent-based simulation approach[J]. Sustainable cities and society, 2015, 19: 34-45.
  [30] SKINNER R, BIDWELL N. Making better places: autonomous vehicles and future opportunities[R/OL]. (2018)[2018-08-31]. http://www.wsp-pb.com/Globaln/UK/WSPPB-Farrells-AV-whitepaper.pdf.
  [31] ZAKHARENKO R. Self-driving cars will change cities[J]. Regional science and urban economics, 2016, 61: 26-37.
  [32] SMOLNICKI P M, SOLTYS J. Driverless mobility: the impact on metropolitan spatial structures[J]. Procedia engineering, 2016, 161: 2184-2190.
  [33] U.S. DOT[EB/OL]. (2017) [2018-08-31]. https://www.nhtsa.gov/pressreleases.
  [34] BAGLOEE S A, TAVANA M, ASADI M, et al. Autonomous vehicles: challenges, opportunities, and future implications for transportation policies[J]. Journal of modern transport, 2016, 24(4): 284-303.
  [35] MLADENOVIC M N, MCPHERSON T. Engineering social justice into traffic control for self-driving vehicles?[J]. Science and engineering ethics, 2016, 22(4): 1131-1149.
  [36] ANDERSON J, NIDHI K, STANLEY K D, et al. Autonomous vehicle technology: a guide for policymakers[R]. Rand Corporation, 2014.
  [37] TSUGAWA S. An overview of an automated truck platoon within the Energy ITS Project[J]. IFAC proceedings, 2013, 46(21): 41-46.
  [38] LI S E, LI K, WANG J. Economy-oriented vehicle adaptive cruise control with coordinating multiple objectives function[J]. Vehicle system dynamics, 2013, 51(1): 1-13.
  [39] WADUD Z. Fully automated vehicles: a cost of ownership analysis to inform early adoption[J]. Transportation research part a, 2017, 101: 163-176.
  [40] MEYER J, BECKER P M, BOSCH A K. Autonomous vehicles: the next jump in accessibilities?[J]. Research in transportation economics, 2017, 62: 80-91.