Yang Junyan, Shi Yi, Sun Ruiqi, Wang Qiao, Gu Jie

Keywords： Spatiotemporal Distribution of Population; Built Environment; Convolutional Neural Network; Spatiotemporal Prediction Model; Man-Land Relationship

Abstract：

The construction method of population spatiotemporal distribution model is a longterm research topic of urban planning. The development of information and communication technology provides important data source and technical support for the construction of population spatiotemporal distribution model to study urban complex systems. In this paper, 500m × 500m rectangular grid is used as the research unit to construct the 24h population density distribution characteristic data set by using the mobile phone signaling data. It integrates 32 built-up environmental factors to form an index database, and constructs the built-up environmental characteristic data set. Based on the convolution neural network, the temporal and spatial distribution prediction model of population in Nanjing is constructed. Taking the characteristics of urban built environment as the independent variable and the multi period density distribution of population as the dependent variable, the nonlinear relationship between them is learned, and the simulation of population distribution in Nanjing is realized. Based on the spatial distribution of MAPE value, the model shows a high degree of fitting. Among them, the spatial units with small error in the simulation results are located in the central area of Nanjing and the non-centralized construction area in the outer suburbs, and the spatial units with large error are located in the areas with unstable crowd activities such as urban expansion area and construction area.

Funds：

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