赵捷 彭正洪 李志刚

Zhao Jie, Peng Zhenghong, Li Zhigang

关键词：住房建设评估；规划决策；模型；英国；住房供需平衡

Keywords：Housing Construction Evaluation; Planning Decision; Model; The UK; Balance of Housing Supply and Demand

摘要：

进入新时代，作为推动国民经济社会发展的重要“供给侧”，中国住房建设的发展速度迅猛，规模巨大，成就显著。在改善人民美好生活的同时，也出现了供需失衡、结构不尽合理、居民负担重等多方面问题。为实现住房供求关系优化、推动住房市场可持续发展、提高居民住房可负担力，对我国住房建设工作开展科学评估与优化成为亟待深入开展的重要工作。本文系统回顾了英国住房建设评估的发展历程，剖析其住房建设评估工作的背景、内容与实效；同时结合对于典型住房建设评估模型的分析，揭示其住房建设评估工作的运行特征与机制；总结其评估经验对于我国住房建设及规划的启示，以此为我国住房建设评估及相关决策工作提供参考和借鉴。

Abstract：

Entering the new era, as an important “supply side” to promote the development of national economy and society, there is a high speed development of housing construction in China, making remarkable achievements. But there are still many challenges, such as the imbalance of supply and demand, the dis-appropriate structure of housing provision, the heavy burden of residents, and so on. In order to optimize the housing supply and demand, promote the sustainable development of housing market, and improve affordability, the scientific assessment and optimization of housing construction in China has become an important task. This paper reviews the development history of the housing construction assessment in the UK, examining its background, contents and effects, with the introduction of some typical housing construction evaluation models, operation mechanisms and characteristics. We summarize the experience and references and make some suggestions to the evaluation of planning and construction of housing in China. Such lessons provide valuable suggestions to promote the transformation of housing construction in China.

赵捷，博士，武汉大学城市设计学院，讲师

彭正洪，博士，武汉大学城市设计学院，教授

李志刚，博士，武汉大学城市设计学院，教授

• [1] 郭克莎. 中国房地产市场的需求和调控机制——一个处理政府与市场关系的分析框架[J]. 管理世界, 2017(2): 97-108.

  [2] 赵燕菁. 中国房地产温故1998[J]. 北京规划建设, 2017(5): 146-147.

  [3] 张国武, 龚皓锋, 刘沅. 基于空间分割理论的城市住区研究——上海住房市场空间分割的实证研究及规划启示[J]. 城市规划, 2013, 37(7): 81-86.

  [4] 徐菊芬, 黄春晓. 空间正义视角下中国城镇住房调控实施的批判与反思[J]. 现代城市研究, 2016(10): 121-126.

  [5] 秦佑国, 林波荣, 朱颖心. 中国绿色建筑评估体系研究[J]. 建筑学报, 2007(3): 68-71.

  [6] 肖岳. 控制性详细规划改革前路探究[C] // 中国城市规划学会、沈阳市人民政府. 规划60 年：成就与挑战——2016 中国城市规划年会论文集（06 城市设计与详细规划）. 中国城市规划学会、沈阳市人民政府, 2016.

  [7] 梁锐, 雷琳, 成辉, 等. 美国绿色建筑评估体系变化与发展[J]. 西安建筑科技大学学报( 自然科学版), 2016, 48(1): 143-147.

  [8] 刘天桢. 基于多维数据分析的历史建筑评估系统研究[J]. 建筑与文化, 2013(10): 53-54.

  [9] 赵宁, 华晨. 英国住房规划的经济评估体系及其思考[J]. 建筑学报, 2011(2): 110-113.

  [10] HOLMANS A. Historical statistics of housing in Britain[D]. Cambridge: Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, 2005.

  [11] BARKER K. Review of housing supply: final report - recommendations[D]. London: HMSO, 2004.

  [12] CROOK T, MONK S. Planning gains, providing homes[J]. Housing Studies, 2011, 26(7-8): 997-1018.

  [13] BALL M J. Housing supply and planning controls: the impact of development control processing times on housing supply in England[R]. National Housing & Planning Advice Unit, 2010: 11-27.

  [14] FRCA G B M. Understanding neighbourhood housing markets: regional context, disequilibrium, sub-markets and supply[J]. Housing Studies, 2008, 23(2): 179-212.

  [15] National Housing and Planning Advice Unit. Meeting the housing requirements of an aspiring, growing and prosperous nation: advice to the housing minister about the housing supply range to be tested by the regional planning authorities[R]. Titchfield: NHPAU, 2008.

  [16] Department of Communities and Local Government, University of Liverpool, University of Manchester, University of the West of England. ‘Spatial plans in practice: supporting the reform of local planning’(planning research report)[R]. London: CLG, 2008.

  [17] LINDH T, BO M. Demography and housing demand-what can we learn from residential construction data?[J]. Journal of Population Economics, 2008, 21(3): 521-539.

  [18] EVANS A W.‘ Rabbit hutches on postage stamps’: planning, development and political economy[J]. Urban Studies, 1991, 28(6): 853-870.

  [19] MEEN G, ANDREW M. Planning for housing in the post-Barker era: affordability, household formation, and tenure choice[J]. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2008, 24(1): 79-98.

  [20] BRAMLEY G, WATKINS D. Housebuilding, demographic change and affordability as outcomes of local planning decisions: exploring interactions using a sub-regional model of housing markets in England[J]. Progress in Planning, 2016, 104: 1-35.

  [21] ADAIR A S, BERRY J N, McGREAL W S. Hedonic modelling, housing submarkets and residential valuation[J]. Journal of Property Research, 1996, 13(1): 67-83.

  [22] MEEN G. A long-run model of housing affordability[J]. Housing Studies, 2011, 26(7-8): 1081-1103.

  [23] ZHOU Y, HAAN M. Cohort progress toward household formation and homeownership: young immigrant cohorts in Los Angeles and Toronto compared[J]. Ethnic & Racial Studies, 2012, 35(7): 1311-1337.

  [24] LEE K O, PAINTER G. What happens to household formation in a recession?[J]. Journal of Urban Economics, 2013, 76(2): 93-109.

  [25] LEISHMAN C, BRAMLEY G. A local housing market model with spatial interaction and land-use planning controls[J]. Environment & Planning A, 2005, 37(9): 1637-1649.

  [26] ANDREW M, BRAMLEY G, LEISHMAN C, et al. NHPAU sub-regional market modelling feasibility: main report on model testing and feasibility[R]. London, NHPAU/DCLG, 2010.

  [27] BRAMLEY G, PAWSON H, PLEACE N, et al. Estimating housing need[D]. London, Department for Communities and Local Government, 2010.

  [28] ESMAEILI M, VANCHERI A, GIORDANO P. Modeling housing market dynamics using a multi-agent simulation of participants’ cognitive behavior[M] // Emergent phenomena in housing markets. Physica-Verlag HD, 2013: 43-83.

  [29] JONES C, COOMBES M, WONG C. A system of national tiered housingmarket areas and spatial planning[J]. Environment & Planning B Planning & Design, 2012, 39(3): 518-532.

  
  

• 收起