郑迪 吴志强

Zheng Di, Wu Zhiqiang

关键词：大都市战略；不确定性；情景分析；智能平台；方法论

Keywords：Metropolitan Strategy; Uncertainty; Scenario Analysis; Intelligent Platform; Methodology

摘要：

面对未来大都市的不确定性，战略制定分析方法应进行多个预案的系统分析，向多维度、跨专业、灵活性的情景分析发展。基于多个大都市的情景分析实证，本文对其预测方法的共性要素（跨专业、多维度、灵活形式）进行解构分析，并结合实证案例详述情景分析的跨专业分析、多维度路径、灵活动态组织以及创新场景构建方法。基于共性结构与特性解析，本文总结出以“多维情境、多元专业、弹性内容”为导向的“情景分析三角”，其具有多维度模型推演、跨界综合判断、动态应对未来的特点。在此基础上，本文提出情景分析五步法与情景构建流程，它们未来具有形成智能分析平台的可能。

Abstract：

Facing the uncertainty of future metropolis, the strategy formulation analysis method should carry out the systematic analysis of multiple plans, and develop to the multi-dimensional, cross-professional and flexible scenario. Based on the empirical scenario analysis of multiple metropolises, this paper deconstructs and analyzes the common elements of scenario analysis (interdisciplinary, multi-dimensional, flexible form), and combines empirical cases to give an elaborate account of inter-professional analysis, multi-dimensional path, flexible dynamics of scenario analysis organization and innovation scenario construction method. Based on the analysis of the common structure and characteristics, this paper summarizes the “Scenario Analysis Triangle”oriented by “Multi-Dimensional Scenario, Multi-Specialties Field, Flexible Content”, which has three specialties of multi-dimensional model deduction, cross-border comprehensive judgment and response to dynamic future. On this basis, this paper proposes a five-step scenario analysis and scenario construction process, which has the potential to form an intelligent analysis platform in the future.

郑迪，博士，万科未来城市实验室合伙人。zendyzendy@qq.com

吴志强（通信作者），中国工程院院士，德国国家工程科学院院士，瑞典皇家工程科学院院士，上海市政府参事，上海市人工智能战略咨询专家委员和召集人。wus@tongji.edu.cn

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